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State Budget Outlook
The following information is from a Microsoft PowerPoint presentation from the Office of State Finance that provides a multi-year analysis of the State of Oklahoma budget. View the PowerPoint presentation (.ppt, 4 s, 145 KB).
Slide 1
State Budget Outlook, Multi-Year Analysis
Office of State Finance
Nov. 1, 2011*
Shelly Paulk, Revenue Analyst
*To be updated upon release of OSU Econometric forecast in late November
Slide 2
| FY 2005 | FY 2006 | FY 2007 | FY 2008 | FY 2009 | FY 2010 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Trend | $4,956.90 | $5,715.90 | $5,965.70 | $5,981.10 | $5,544.70 | $4,620.90 |
| Appropriations Trend | $4,335.60 | $4,943.10 | $5,438.50 | $5,552.00 | $5,649.00 | $4,464.00 |
| Average Expenditure Growth Adj. ROADS & OHLAP |
||||||
| Average Revenue Growth FY-1999 to FY-2011 |
| FY 2011 | FY 2012 | FY 2013 | FY 2014 | FY 2015 | FY 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5,137.80 | $5,236.30 | $5,398.60 | $5,566.00 | $5,738.50 | $5,916.40 |
| Appropriations | $4,634.80 | $4,968.40 | $5,179.00 | $5,336.10 | $5,498.20 | $5,665.40 |
| Average Expenditure Growth Adj. ROADS & OHLAP |
$5,449.00 | $5,619.00 | $5,792.40 | $5,969.30 | ||
| Average Revenue Growth FY-1999 to FY-2011 |
$5,377.90 | $5,502.10 | $5,629.20 | $5,759.20 |
Revenue estimates to be updated in late November with OSU Econometric Model projections
Difference between Appropriation and the actual/estimated revenue
- Fiscal year 2005 - $621.3
- Fiscal year 2006 - $772.8
- Fiscal year 2007 - $527.2
- Fiscal year 2008 - $429.1
- Fiscal year 2009 - ($104.3)
- Fiscal year 2010 - $156.9
- Fiscal year 2011 - $503
- Fiscal year 2012 - $267.9
Legend
- Red line = Revenue trend line using actual average growth from FY-2004 through FY-2011 – Ave. 3.1 percent
- Green line = Revenue trend line based on average growth (FY-1999 through FY 2011) – Ave. 2.31 percent
- Black line = Expenditure growth adjusted for OHLAP increases (est. 8.22 percent) and ROADS increases (11 Session)
- Blue line = Average growth of appropriations, based on FY-2004 through FY-2012 Act - Normalized Ave. 2.97 percent
Slide 3
General Revenue Fund Sources, Trend Based Projections, In Millions
To be updated with OSU Econometric Forecast
Fiscal Year 2012-Fiscal Year 2014
- Personal income tax - Average 3.0% growth
- Corporate income tax - Average 0.1% growth
- GP gas - Average 0.2% growth
- Sales tax - Average 4.0% growth
- Motor vehicle tax - Average 4.4% growth
Fiscal Year 2011 (Office of State Finance Actual Collections plus ROADS funding and OK Promise)
- Personal income tax - $2,109.1
- Corporate income tax - $274.3
- GP gas - $275.9
- Sales tax - $1,668.3
- Motor vehicle tax - $198.6
Fiscal Year 2012 (June BOE Estimate plus ROADS funding and OK Promise)
- Personal Income tax - $2,148.4
- Corporate Income tax - $202.8
- GP gas - $333.1
- Sales tax – 1,747.4
- Motor vehicle tax – $221.3
Fiscal Year 2013 (OSF Projections Based on 10 Year Normalized Growth Rates plus OK Promise and additional ROADS funding, Less GP Gas Deferred Tax Credits Impact, Less Personal Income Tax Rate decrease)
- Personal income tax - $2,160.1
- Corporate income tax - $229.5
- GP gas - $301.8
- Sales tax - $1,811.4
- Motor vehicle tax - $223.1
Fiscal Year 2014 (OSF Projections Based on 10 Year Normalized Growth Rates plus OK Promise estimate and additional ROADS funding, Less GP Gas Deferred Tax Credits Impact, Less Personal Income Tax Rate decrease)
- Personal income tax - $2,300.3
- Corporate income tax - $259.6
- GP gas - $269.4
- Sales tax - $1,877.6
- Motor vehicle tax - $225.0
Sources are shown as totals - Not reduced for OHLAP or roads funding
Slide 4
General Revenue Growth – 5 Major Sources (In Millions, With Percentage of Change From Prior Year)
(Total Growth: Personal Income Tax, Corporate Income Tax, Gross Production Gas, Sales Tax, Motor Vehicle Tax)
To be updated with OSU Econometric Forecast
- Fiscal Year 2009, (6.7)% - Actuals
- Fiscal Year 2010, (17.3)% - Actuals
- Fiscal Year 2011, 12.6% – Actuals
- Fiscal Year 2012, 2.8% – Based on OSF June BOE Estimate Plus OK Promise & ROADS funding
- Fiscal Year 2013, 1.6% - Based on OSF 10-Year Normalized Growth Rates Plus OK Promise & additional ROADS funding, Less GP Gas Deferred Tax Credit Impact, Less Impact for Personal Income Tax Rate Reduction
- Fiscal Year 2014, 4.4% - Based on OSF 10-Year Normalized Growth Rates Plus OK Promise Estimate & additional ROADS funding, Less GP Gas Deferred Tax Credit Impact, Less Impact for Personal Income Tax Rate Reduction
- Fiscal Year 2015, 4.2 percent - Based on OSF 10-Year Normalized Growth Rates Plus OK Promise Estimate & additional ROADS funding, Less GP Gas Deferred Tax Credit Impact, Less Impact for Personal Income Tax Rate Reduction
- Fiscal Year 2016, 5.4 % - Based on OSF 10-Year Normalized Growth Rates Plus OK Promise Estimate & additional ROADS funding, Less GP Gas Deferred Tax Credit Impact, Less Impact for Personal Income Tax Rate Reduction
OHLAP or ROADS funding not removed
Last Modified on 11/01/2011